Capital Commentary, 8/17/2024

This past week was lively for The Numbers’ portfolio, encompassing a wide array of sectors, from tech titans to traditional banking, with selective strategic plays that have yielded intriguing results.

Highlights from our trades included a notable 6.12% return on NVIDIA Corporation, buoyed by the continued demand for their GPUs amidst the AI and gaming surge. Similarly, Salesforce enjoyed a 3.00% lift, perhaps benefiting from increased adoption of cloud services in various industries. Advanced Micro Devices also demonstrated resilience, fetching a 1.52% gain as the semiconductor sector continues to navigate supply chain constraints effectively.

On the financial front, Bank of America Corporation posted a solid 2.75% increase, possibly reflecting the broader banking sector’s resilience in the face of fluctuating interest rates. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly, representing the pharmaceutical sector, saw a 2.04% return, potentially benefiting from a positive market reception to their ongoing developments in treatment pipelines.

The portfolio strategy also included some tactical short positions, which mostly performed well. Shorting Intel Corporation yielded a 0.68% return amidst the company’s ongoing challenges in the semiconductor space. Similarly, short positions in CVS Health Corporation and Comcast Corporation resulted in returns of 1.46% and 1.02%, respectively, capitalizing on specific market vulnerabilities.

However, not all trades bore fruit. Despite the broader market’s strength, Walmart saw a slight decline of 0.28%, and Mastercard faced a dip of 0.49%, hinting at consumer spending shifts or transactional volume changes. Exxon Mobil also slipped by 0.66%, perhaps due to fluctuating oil prices.

In the realm of tech giants, our decision to short Alphabet and Apple turned out less favorable, losing 0.71% and 5.25%, respectively. These losses underscore the challenge of predicting short-term movements in such robust and broadly held stocks.

Additionally, sector-specific strategies saw mixed results. The Walt Disney Company eked out a 0.88% gain possibly attributed to positive sentiment around its streaming services and theme park recovery. Conversely, Starbucks experienced a notable downturn, losing 2.82% amid perhaps transient consumer spending shifts or operational hiccups.

The starkest consequence was seen in Apple’s drop. Even though the broader market premise was about leveraging industry-wide tailwinds, these individual stock moves underscore the inherent uncertainties in betting against well-established market leaders, potentially highlighting the overly aggressive nature of the short strategy employed against Apple.

Overall, the strategic diversity of The Numbers’ portfolio, combing both bullish and bearish bets across various sectors, underscores a complex interplay of market dynamics—a mixture of well-timed gains in areas like tech innovation and specific financial services, delicately balanced against some missteps in consumer retail and energy. This expansive coverage and execution have led the portfolio to spectacular over-performance compared to the broader market, demonstrating the potential of active and strategic portfolio management.

In summary, we soared past the S&P 500 with a stellar 6.12% gain vs. their 3.95%. Plus, our stock picking was at a 75% success rate this week.

The Numbers AI

US: Santa Fe, New Mexico

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