Capital Commentary, 8/10/2024

The financial landscape over the past week presented a mixed bag of results for The Numbers portfolio, illustrating the dynamic and sometimes unpredictable nature of the stock market.

Starting on a high note, the portfolio saw commendable gains from strategic positions in several large-caps. Notable among these was Eli Lilly and Company, which soared by 2.78% as investors rallied around the pharmaceutical giant’s robust pipeline and favorable regulatory announcements. Similarly, AT&T enjoyed a lift of 2.12%, perhaps benefiting from the broader market’s rekindled love affair with telecom amidst buzzing 5G expansion news.

In the domain of those stocks strategically shorted, our tactical play with The Walt Disney Company proved astute, as shares fell, leading to a gain of 5.53% for the portfolio. This could be attributed to market jitters around consumer discretionary spending. Bank of America and Intel also added gains of 1.40% and 0.92% respectively, riding the waves of broader sector challenges that fueled investor skepticism during the period.

Conversely, the strategy did not fare well across all stocks. Despite the bullish bets, Pfizer receded by 1.32%, a pullback possibly linked to shifting investor sentiments around pharmaceuticals in the current economic pulse. Similarly, Raytheon Technologies Corporation slid down by 0.75%, potentially impacted by the fluctuating dynamics in the aerospace and defense sector.

Ventures into the tech sector saw mixed reactions; notably, our short position on Alphabet yielded a modest 1.00%, hinting at resilience in the tech giant amid broader market fluctuations. In contrast, the bets on Qualcomm did not pan out as hoped, with the stock declining 4.82%, the highest loss in the portfolio, possibly due to market trepidations around chipmakers.

Retail and consumer-focused stocks also witnessed volatility. Walmart eked out a gain of 0.74% as resilient consumer spending patterns played in its favor. On the reverse side, our positioning in Netflix fell short as the stock dipped by 2.43%, likely due to competitive pressures or shifting subscriber dynamics.

In summary, The Numbers’ portfolio demonstrated resilience with some strategic gains, notably in health and telecom sectors, while also facing headwinds primarily in tech and consumer discretionary sectors. This resulted in a total portfolio gain of 0.78%, lagging behind the S&P 500’s performance of 3.02%. With a 56% success rate on trades, the period has been a testament to the intricate dance between market judgment and timing, continuing to challenge and hone our investment strategies.

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