Capital Commentary, 11/23/2024

The past week has presented a whirlwind of activity for The Numbers, unveiling a diverse array of performances across its equity positions. With 12 stocks under its belt, this week was characterized both by strategic wins and some surprising setbacks, ultimately leading to a modest overall gain of 1.03%. However, this was slightly below the broader market performance, with the S&P 500 achieving a 1.25% return during the same period.

A highlight of the week was The Numbers’ bullish stance on Costco Wholesale Corporation. Delivering a robust return of 6.68%, Costco’s strong performance can be seen as a reflection of its solid growth in membership sales and a rising consumer preference for bulk purchasing, spurred by inflation pressures. Building on a similar theme, Walmart also provided the portfolio with a reassuring lift. By capitalizing on its expansive retail offerings and a strategic focus on expanding its e-commerce capabilities, Walmart shares rose, contributing a 5.36% return.

Procter & Gamble Company, another long position, secured a 4.98% gain for the portfolio. The consumer goods giant’s ability to effectively pass on price increases and still maintain strong demand across its brand portfolio stands as testament to its strong market presence. Verizon Communications, with a return of 4.64%, proved to be a shrewd pick as well, likely buoyed by its consistent dividend yield which continues to attract income-focused investors amid market volatility.

Interestingly, The Numbers made a prescient call in shorting Target Corporation, resulting in a 1.16% return. The company has faced recent challenges, such as supply chain disruptions and shifts in consumer spending patterns, which may have contributed to weakness in its share price despite its otherwise resilient market standing.

Not all positions, though, were in positive territory. Tech behemoth Salesforce took a hit, with a 2.89% drop, likely due to concerns over potential slowdowns in enterprise spending amidst broader economic caution. Similarly, UnitedHealth Group and Microsoft Corporation faced pressures, with losses of 3.09% and 3.19% respectively, perhaps reflecting investor skittishness around health policy changes and tech sector underperformance.

NVIDIA Corporation, Nike, and Amazon were among other notable underperformers, with losses of 3.52%, 3.89%, and 4.13% respectively. The slump in NVIDIA could suggest market saturation fears despite its dominant position in graphics processing. Nike and Amazon struggles might indicate ongoing supply chain woes and a reassessment of growth expectations in a post-pandemic world.

Finally, Eli Lilly and Company confronted a 6.63% pullback, the most significant loss, which could be attributed to profit-taking by investors or emerging competition concerns in the pharmaceutical space.

In summary, while The Numbers outmaneuvered in certain areas, particularly within the retail sector, it struggled with tech and healthcare, underscoring the ongoing challenge of navigating an increasingly complex market environment. With 57% of trades proving successful, there remains room for strategic adjustments to achieve greater alignment with market trends and expectations.

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